Publications

Most recent publications

The ENGAGE project regularly communicates and disseminates its innovative results through continuous publications in scientific journals. This knowledge base serves as a public resource for direct access to these articles.

ENGAGE Policy Briefs

Publications 2020

Kuramochi T, Roelfsema M, Hsu A, Swithin L et al (2020). Beyond national climate action: The impact of region, city and business commitments on global greenhouse gas emissions. Climate Policy 20 (3): 275-291. [DOI:10.1080/14693062.2020.1740150]

Roelfsema M, van Soest HL, Harmsen M et al (2020). Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement. Nature Communications 11 (2096). [DOI:10.1038/s41467-020-15414-6][pure.iiasa.ac.at/16436]

Jewell J & Cherp A (2020). On the political feasibility of climate change mitigation pathways: Is it too late to keep warming below 1.5°C? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 11 (1):e621. [DOI:10.1002/wcc.621][pure.iiasa.ac.at/16166]

Dubash NK (2020). Revisiting climate ambition: The case for prioritizing current action over future intent. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 11 (1):e622. [DOI:10.1002/wcc.622]

Vishwanathan S & Garg A (2020). Energy system transformation to meet NDC, 2°C, and well below 2°C targets for India. Climatic Change. [DOI:10.1007/s10584-019-02616-1]

Fujimori S, Rogelj J, Krey V & Riahi K (2019). A new generation of emissions scenarios should cover blind spots in the carbon budget space. Nature Climate Change 9 (11): 798-800. [DOI:10.1038/s41558-019-0611-9][pure.iiasa.ac.at/16134]

Yalew S, van Vliet M, Gernaat D, Ludwig F et al (2020). Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios. Nature Energy. [DOI: 10.1038/s41560-020-0664-7]

Humpenöder F, Karstens K, Lotze-Campen H, Leifeld J et al (2020). Peatland protection and restoration are key for climate change mitigation. Environmental Research Letters. [DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/abae2a] 

Lui S, Kuramochi T, Smit S, Roelfsema M et al (2020). Correcting course: the emission reduction potential of international cooperative initiatives. Climate Policy. [DOI:10.1080/14693062.2020.1806021] 

Leclere D, Obersteiner M, Barrett M et al (2020). Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy. Nature. [DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y] [pure.iiasa.ac.at/16699]

O’Neill B, Carter T, Ebi K, Harrison P, Kemp-Benedict E, Kok K, Kriegler E, Preston B, Riahi K et al (2020). Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework. Nature Climate Change [DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0] [pure.iiasa.ac.at/16872]

Hurtt G, Chini L, Sahajpal R, Frolking S et al (2020). Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 820-2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development [DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020]

Mathur R, Shekhar S (2020). India’s energy sector choices – options and implications of ambitious mitigation efforts. Nature Climate Change 162 [DOI:10.1007/s10584-020-02885-1]

Publications 2021

Frank S, Gusti M, Havlik P, Lauri P et al (2021). Land-based climate change mitigation potentials within the agenda for sustainable development. Environmental Research Letters 16 [DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/abc58a][pure.iiasa.ac.at/eprint/16999]

Fekete H, Kuramochi T, Roelfsema M, den Elzen M et al (2021). A review of successful climate change mitigation policies in major emitting economies and the potential of global replication. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 137. [DOI:10.1016/j.rser.2020.110602] 

Rafaj P, Kiewetter G, Krey V, Schöpp W et al (2021). Air quality and health implications of 1.5-2°C climate pathways under considerations of ageing populations: A multi-model scenario analysis. Environmental Research Letters in press. [DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/abdf0b]

Silva Herran D, Fujimori S (2021). Beyond Japanese NDC: energy and macroeconomic transitions towards 2050 in emission pathways with multiple ambition levels. Sustainability Science 16 [DOI:10.1007/s11625-00930-1][http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17072/]

Granella F, Reis L, Bosetti V and Tavoni M (2021). COVID-19 lockdown only partially alleviates health impacts of air pollution in Northern Italy. Environmental Research Letters 16 [DOI:10.1088/7148-9326/abd3d2]

Bertram C, Luderer G, Creutzig F, Bauer N et al (2021). COVID-19-induced low power demand and market forces starkly reduce CO₂ emissions. Nature Climate Change [DOI:10.1038/s41558-021-00987-x] 

Cherp A and Jewell J (2020). COVID-19 weakens both sides in the battle between coal and renewables. Nature Behavioural and Social Sciences Community. 22 April 2020

van Soest H, den Elzen M and van Vuuren D (2021). Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement. Nature Communications [DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22294-x]

Avashia V, Garg A, and Dholakia H (2021). Understanding temperature related health risk in context of urban land use changes. Landscape and Urban Planning [DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2021.104107]

Pianta S, Brutschin E, van Ruijven B and Bosetti V (2021). Faster or slower decarbonisation? Policymaker and stakeholder expectations on the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global energy transition. Energy Research & Social Science  [DOI:10.1016/j.erss.2021.102025]  [http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17181/]

Grassi G, Stehfest E, Rogelj, J, van Vuuren D et al (2021). Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress. Nature Climate Change [DOI:10.1038/s41558-021-01033-6]  [http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17187/]

Pihl E, Alfredsson E, Bengtsson M, Bowen K et al (2021). Ten new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan. Global Sustainability 4, e5 1-18. [DOI:10.107/sus.2021.2][http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17011/] 

Fujimori S, Krey V, van Vuuren D, Oshiro K et al (2021). A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions. Nature Climate Change [DOI:10.1038/s41558-021-01048-z][http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17229/][Data DOI:10.5281/zenodo.4775010] 

Kuramochi T, Nascimento L, Moisio M, den Elzen M et al (2021). Greenhouse gas emission scenarios in nine key non-G20 countries: An assessment of progress toward 2030 climate targets. Environmental Science & Policy 123 67-81 [DOI:10.1016/j.envsci.2021.04.015][http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17226/] 

Battiston S, Monasterolo I, Riahi K, and van Ruijven B (2021). Accounting for finance is key for climate mitigation pathways. Science [DOI:10.1126/Science.abf3877][http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17220/]

Dimitrova A, Marois G, Kiesewetter G, Samir KC et al (2021). Health impacts of fine particles under climate change mitigation, air quality control, and demographic change in India. Environmental Research Letters 16 [DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d5][http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17044/] 

Brutschin E, Pianta S, Tavoni M, Riahi K et al (2021). A multidimensional feasibility evaluation of low-carbon scenarios. Environmental Research Letters 16 064069 [DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/abf0ce][http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17259/][Visualisation tool] 

Bertram C, Riahi K, Hilaire J, Bosetti V et al (2021). Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for Paris Agreement goals. Environmental Research Letters 16 074020 [DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac09ae] 

Cherp A, Vinichenko V, Tosun J et al (2021). National growth dynamics of wind and solar power compared to the growth required for global climate targets. Nature Energy 6 742-754 [DOI:10.1038/s41560-021-00863-0][http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17337/][Code for curve fitting]

Soergel B, Kriegler E, Weindl I, Rauner S, et al (2021). A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda. Nature Climate Change 11 656-664 [DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01098-3][Data DOI: https://zenodo.org/record/4787613#.YQjtQ44zaUk]

Pai S, Emmerling J, Drouet L, Zerriffi H et al (2021). Meeting well-below 2°C target would increase energy sector jobs globally. One Earth 4(7) 1026-1036 [DOI:  10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.005][http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17343/]

Vishwanathan S, Garg A, Tiwari T et al (2021). SDG implications of water-energy systems transitions for NDC, 2℃, and well below 2℃ Scenarios. Environmental Research Letters 16 085011 [DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac08bf]

Malik A, Bertram C, Kriegler E, Luderer G (2021). Climate policy accelerates structural changes in energy employment. Energy Policy 159 112642 [DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112642]

Hasegawa T, Shinichiro F, Frank S et al (2021). Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions. Nature Sustainability [DOI: 10.1038/s41893-021-00772-w][Data DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.5078072]

Kikstra J, Vinca A, Lovat F et al (2021). Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes. Nature Energy 10 [DOI: 10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8]

Nascimento L, Kuramochi T, Iacobuta G, den Elzen M et al (2021). Twenty years of climate policy: G20 coverage and gaps. Climate Policy [DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2021.1993776][Data DOI: 10.4121/12962288.v1]

Brutschin E, Cherp A, Jewell J (2021). Failing the formative phase: The global diffusion of nuclear power is limited by national markets. Energy Research & Social Science 80 [DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2021.102221]

Baumstark, L., Bauer, N., Bertram, B., Bi, S., Gong, C., Phillipp Dietrich, J., Dirnaicher, A., Giannousakis, A., et al. (2021) REMIND 2.1: transformation and innovation dynamics of the energy-economic system within climate and sustainability limits [DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-6571-2021]  

Vinichenko V, Cherp A, Jewell J (2021). Historical precedents and feasibility of rapid coal and gas decline required for the 1.5°C target. One Earth 4(10) 1477-1490. [DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.09.012]

Drouet, L., Bosetti, V., Padoan, S.A., Aleluia Reis, L., Bertram, C., Dalla Longa, F., Després, J., Emmerling, J., et al. (2021). Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change. Nature Climate Change. [DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01218-z]

Riahi, K., Bertram, C., Huppmann, D., Rogelj, J., Bosetti, V., Cabardos, A-M., Deppermann, A., Drouet, L., et al. (2021). Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot. Nature Climate Change. [DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01215-2]

Cherp, A. (2021). Cost of non-uniform climate policies. Nature Climate Change 1-2. [DOI:10.1038/s41558-021-01133-3]

Martin, Maria A. et al. (2021). Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2021: A Horizon Scan. Global Sustainability 4(25) [DOI: 10.1017/sus.2021.25]

Frank, S., Havlik, P., Tabeau, A., et al. (2021). How much multilateralism do we need? Effectiveness of unilateral agricultural mitigation efforts in the global context. Environmental Research Letters 16. [DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2967/meta] 

Roe, S., Streck, C., Beach, R., et al. (2021). Land-based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country. Global Change Biology, 27(23). [DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15873] 

Publications 2022

Brutschin, E. , Schenuit, F., van Ruijven, B. , & Riahi, K. (2022). Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout. Politics and Governance 10 (3), 200-212. 10.17645/pag.v10i3.5535.

Dafnomilis, I., Hsing-Hsuan, C., den Elzen, M., Fragkos, P., Chewpreecha, U., van Soest, H., Fragkiadakis, K., Karkatsoulis, P., et al. (2022).  Targeted Green Recovery Measures in a Post-COVID-19 World Enable the Energy Transition. [DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.840933]

Kikstra, J.S. , Nicholls, Z.R.J. , Smith, Christopher J., Lewis, J., Lamboll, R.D., Byers, E. , Sandstad, M., Meinshausen, M, Gidden, M.J. , Rogelj, J. , Kriegler, E., Peters, G.P., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Skeie, R.B., Samset, B.H., Wienpahl, L., van Vuuren, D.P., van der Wijst, K.-I., Al Khourdajie, A., Forster, P.M., Reisinger, A., Schaeffer, R., & Riahi, K. (2022). The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures. Geoscientific Model Development 15 (24), 9075-9109. 10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022.

Huppmann, D. , Gidden, M. , Nicholls, Z., Hörsch, J., Lamboll, R., Kishimoto, P. , Burandt, T., Fricko, O. , et al. (2021). pyam: Analysis and visualisation of integrated assessment and macro-energy scenarios. Open Research Europe 1 e74. [DOI: 10.12688/openreseurope.13633.1] . 

Huppmann, D. & Hackstock, P. (2022). The Python package pyam for analysis, validation & visualization of integrated-assessment and energy-systems scenarios. In: ENGAGE Capacity Building Workshop on Good Practices.

Nacke, L., Cherp, A. & Jewell, J. (2022). Phases of fossil fuel decline: Diagnostic framework for policy sequencing and feasible transition pathways in resource dependent regions. Oxford Open Energy 1. [DOI: 10.1093/ooenergy/oiac002]

Nicholls, Z. , Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., Smith, C. , Forster, P.M., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Rogelj, J. , Kikstra, J. , Riahi, K. , & Byers, E. (2022). Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled. Geophysical Research Letters 49 (20) 10.1029/2022GL099788.

Pianta, S., & Brutschin, E. (2022). Emissions Lock-in, Capacity, and Public Opinion: How Insights From Political Science Can Inform Climate Modeling Efforts. Politics and Governance, 10(3), 186–199. [DOI 10.17645/pag.v10i3.5462] 

Hickmann, T., Bertram, C., Biermann, F., Brutschin, E. , Kriegler, E., Livingstone, J.E., Pianta, S., Riahi, K. , van Ruijven, B. , & van Vuuren, D. (2022). Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models. Politics and Governance 10 (3), 171-185. 10.17645/pag.v10i3.5328.

Brutschin, E., & Andrijevic, M. (2022). Why Ambitious and Just Climate Mitigation Needs Political Science. Politics and Governance, 10(3), 167–170. [DOI:10.17645/pag.v10i3.6156] 

Franz, S., Rottoli, M., Bertram, C. (2022). Wide range of possible aviation demand futures after the COVID-19 pandemic. Environmental Research Letters. [DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac65a4] 

Brutschin, E., Schenuit, F., Ruijven, B. van, & Riahi, K. (2022). Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout. Politics and Governance, 10(3), 200–212. [DOI:10.17645/pag.v10i3.5535]  

Luderer, G., Madeddu, S., Merfort, L., Ueckerdt, F., Pehl, M., Pietzcker, R., Rottoli, M., Schreyer, F., Bauer, N., Baumstark, L., Bertram, C., Dirnaichner, A., Humpenöder, F., Levesque, A., Popp, A., Rodrigues, R., Strefler, J., Kriegler, E., (2022). Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios. Nature Energy 7, 32–42. [DOI 10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z] 

Roelfsema, Mark, et al. (2022). Developing scenarios in the context of the Paris Agreement and application in the integrated assessment model IMAGE: A framework for bridging the policy-modelling divide. Environmental Science & Policy 135. [DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.05.001]

den Elzen, M. G., Dafnomilis, I., Forsell, N., Fragkos, P., Fragkiadakis, K., Höhne, N., et al. (2022). Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach. Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change, 27(6). [DOI: 10.1007/s11027-022-10008-7] 

Reis, L.A., Drouet, L., Tavoni, M. (2022) Internalising health-economic impacts of air pollution into climate policy: a global modelling study, The Lancet Planetary Health, 6(1), E40–E48. [DOI:10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00259-X]

Fujimori, S., Wu, W., Doelman, J., et al. (2022). Land-based climate change mitigation measures can affect agricultural markets and food security. Nature Food 3. [DOI: 10.1038/s43016-022-00464-4]

Hans, F., Woollands, S., Nascimento, L., et al. (2022). Unpacking the COVID-19 rescue and recovery spending: an assessment of implications on greenhouse gas emissions towards 2030 for key emitters. Climate Action 1(3). [DOI: 10.1007/s44168-022-00002-9]

Mueller-Casseres, E., Szklo, A., Fonte, C., et al. (2022). Are there synergies in the decarbonization of aviation and shipping? An integrated perspective for the case of Brazil. IScience 25(10). [DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.105248]

Limmeechokchai, B., Bahadur Pradhan, B. ., Chunark, P. ., Chaichaloempreecha, A. ., Rajbhandari, S. ., & Pita, P. (2022). Energy system transformation for attainability of net zero emissions in Thailand. International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, 35, 27–44. [DOI: 10.54337/ijsepm.7116]

Limmeechokchai, B., Rajbhandari, S., Bahadur Pradhan, B., Chunark, P., Chaichaloempreecha, A., Fujimori, S., Oshiro, K., Ochi, Y. (2022). Scaling up climate ambition post-2030: a long-term GHG mitigation analysis for Thailand, Climate Policy. [DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2022.2126813]

Publications 2023

Carolina, C., Fiorini, O., Rochedo, PRR., Angelkorte, G., Diuana, F.A., Império, M., Carvalho L.S., Nogueira Morais, T., Vasquez-Arroyo, E., & Schaeffer, R., (2023). Investigating biodiversity trends in different mitigation scenarios with a national integrated assessment model, Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences, 20:1, 2239323, DOI: 10.1080/1943815X.2023.2239323

Hyun, M., Cherp, A., Jewell, J., Kim, Y. J. & Eom, J. (2023) Feasibility trade-offs in decarbonising the power sector with high coal dependence: The case of Korea. Renew Sustain Energy Transition 3, 100050.

Jäger J, Brutschin E, Pianta S, Omann I, Kammerlander M, Sudharmma Vishwanathan S, Vrontisi Z, MacDonald J and van Ruijven B (2023). Stakeholder engagement and decarbonization pathways: Meeting the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. Front. Sustain. 3:1063719. [DOI: 10.3389/frsus.2022.1063719]

Jakhmola, A., Jewell, J., Vinichenko, V., & Cherp, A., (2023) Projecting Feasible Medium-Term Growth of Wind and Solar Power Using National Trajectories and Hindcasting. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4501704 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4501704

Jewell, J. & Cherp, A. (2023). The feasibility of climate action: Bridging the inside and the outside view through feasibility spaces. WIREs Climate Change, e838. 10.1002/wcc.838. (In Press) 

Ren, M., Huang, C., Wu, Y., Deppermann, A., Frank, S. , Havlik, P. , Zhu, Y., Fang, C., Ma, X., Liu, Y., Zhao, H., Chang, J., Ma, L., Bai, Z., Xu, S., & Dai, H. (2023). Enhanced food system efficiency is the key to China’s 2060 carbon neutrality target. Nature Food 10.1038/s43016-023-00790-1. (In Press)

Vinichenko, V., Vetier, M., Jewell, J. , Nacke, L., & Cherp, A. (2023). Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns. Environmental Research Letters 18 (1), e014031. 10.1088/1748-9326/acadf6.

Vinichenko, V., Jewell, J., Jacobsson, J. & Cherp, A. (2023) Historical diffusion of nuclear, wind and solar power in different national contexts: implications for climate mitigation pathways. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf47a .

Lægreid, O. M., Cherp, A. & Jewell, J. (2023) Coal phase-out pledges follow peak coal: evidence from sixty years of growth and decline in coal power capacity worldwide. Oxf. Open Energy doi:10.1093/ooenergy/oiad009.